Any shift in investor sentiment may result in speculators fleeing the gold market, driving its price down sharply, quickly. One significant risk for gold is a near-term reversal in the dollar, which recently fell to a two-year low.
If you already hold significant amounts of equity in your portfolio, avoid MAAFs with over 60 per cent equity. But if you lack equity exposure, an aggressive MAAF may be appropriate.
At a time when the whole world is going ga-ga over stocks and debt is too easy to borrow, do not forget gold, says Anil Rego.
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'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
Given the uncertainties around gold's future course, stagger your purchases and buy on declines, says Sanjay Kumar Singh.
Commodity ETFs (exchange traded funds) attempt to track the price of a single commodity, such as gold or oil, or a basket of commodities by holding the actual commodity in storage, or by purchasing futures contracts.
'By investing in a basket of funds, FoFs can help minimise the impact of underperforming funds, thus reducing overall investment risk.'
Retail investment demand for gold bars and coins as well as central bank purchases pushed the global gold demand by 28 per cent to 1,181.5 tonnes in the September quarter, according to the World Gold Council report. The total global demand stood at 921.9 tonnes during the July-September quarter of 2021, the World Gold Council's 'Gold Demand Trends Q3 2022' showed on Tuesday. Investment was down 47 per cent year-on-year as gold backed Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) investors responded to a challenging combination of higher interest rates and a strong US dollar with significant outflows of 227 tonnes.
A substantial fluctuation is likely because for a long period gold has moved in a narrow range of $ 50-60 and at higher levels short positions were built.
Rediff.com spoke to registered investment advisors to figure out how best the extra Rs 17,500 saved ever year can be invested to create a decent corpus in the years ahead. This is what they said.
Gold has risen sharply due to rising risk aversion
With Indian jewellery market already on the robust recovery path, the jewellers are expecting strong Diwali sales in the Dhanteras as the festive mood remains high with low Covid third wave possibility and softer gold price this season. The industry expects the trends in 2021 will be able to reach pre-covid level sales of 2019 on the back of gold price hovering at Rs 46,000-47,000 per 22 carat 10 grams gold nearly 5 per cent lower than 2020, and jump in number of weddings, a senior official of an industry body said. "Since Navratri market is showing demand. It will continue on Dhanteras also.
It has mostly been a one-way street for smallcap stocks that have taken it on their chin thus far in February. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has shed 3.2 per cent in the current month as compared to the 1.8 per cent decline in the Nifty Midcap 100 and the 0.5 per cent drop in the Nifty 50 index, data showed. Technically, the index has slipped below its 20-day moving average (DMA) placed at 14,800 levels on Monday, and is currently testing the 50-DMA, and is placed at 14,278 levels.
Global gold demand has seen a year-on-year decline of 8 per cent during the April-June period to 948.4 tonnes and going ahead further monetary tightening and continued dollar strength may pose headwinds, says a report. According to the WGC Gold Demand Trends Q2 2022 report, the total gold demand during the second quarter of 2021 stood at 1,031.8 tonnes. The year-on-year demand was affected by increase in gold electronic traded funds (ETFs) outflow, decline in Central banks buying and lower demand from the technology segment, the report said.
While e-gold is cheaper than gold plan, it's not tax-friendly like gold ETFs.
The best part is that an investor gets price appreciation and earns interest income as well, which is unique only to sovereign gold bond.
Analysts see steady long-term gains, say volatility to last for a short while.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
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Treat silver as part of the procyclical or growth assets in your portfolio, advises Sanjay Kumar Singh.
Young investors could allocate in the proportion of 70:20:10 to equity, debt and gold.
Those who want to invest should consider their risk appetite. Youngsters may go for it as they have a longer horizon to recover from a setback.
Assets under management with the mutual fund industry jumped a whopping 41 per cent in fiscal 2021 to Rs 31.43 lakh crore, despite a minor 1 per cent decline in March, says a report. The 1 per cent decline in assets on monthly basis in March was because of net outflows from open-ended debt funds, even though open-ended equity funds for the first time in June 2020 recorded net inflows, according to the industry data collated by Crisil on Friday. Marc saw net outflows of Rs 29,745 crore, taking down the industry's asset base to Rs 31.43 lakh crore, down from the record high of Rs 31.64 lakh crore in February, registering a whopping 41 per cent growth in the fiscal 2021 over the previous fiscal, said Crisil, adding cumulative inflows equalled Rs 2.09 lakh crore.
Retail investors have never had it so good in terms of diverse products from mutual funds.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
A portfolio can be rebalanced by either selling a portion of the outperforming asset class or by buying more of the underperforming asset class.
The RBI is still a small player in international gold buying among central banks. But in terms of total gold bought in 2019, it is the sixth largest buyer with 25.2 tonnes purchases in the first 10 months of 2019.
The rally in silver may continue if the global economic recovery remains on course.
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